Markets

Everything we are seeing in European affairs – behind the markets - was forseeable and very close to what I predicted, however unfortunate it is to get this one right. I do not expect that any of the European part of this will settle down any time soon because there really is no person or institution (including the European Central Bank) that can (i.e., has the legal or practical capacity/capability) to deal with the full complexity of this.
It is very unclear in my mind what will happen next, but I think psychology and fear are going to drive more than will reason and understanding. I do not think the Greek deal will hold for many reasons, and I think other countries will now be hit very hard, starting with Portugal, Ireland, add Italy, too, and Spain. But the real results of the UK election will be the next predictable shoe to drop – that’s not going to be known before about 11 PM and even then, no one will know the likely shape of a new British government. That new government will determine in the minds of so many how the financial threat posed by the UK impacts and will impact everything else. That could take days to be known.